A Decision Desk HQ report released Monday revealed that from 2020 to 2024, a “seismic” shift occurred in Latinos’ walking away from the Democratic Party.
“Nationally, estimates indicate that Democratic support among Hispanic voters plummeted from approximately 65.1% in 2020 to 54.7% in 2024 — a staggering 10.4 percentage point decline that transformed what was once a reliably Democratic constituency into a competitive battleground,” Decision Desk HQ data scientist, Zach Donnini, wrote.
“This seismic shift occurred across virtually every region of the country, with the most pronounced changes concentrated in high-density Hispanic metropolitan areas that had previously served as Democratic strongholds.”
In New York City, from 2020 to 2024, Democrat strongholds such as Queens and the Bronx saw a 17 and 19-point drop among Latinos, from 75-80% in 2020 to 55-60% by 2024.
In Los Angeles, Democrat support among Latinos fell 12 points from 75% in 2020 to 63% in 2024, and in the Central Valley, support plummeted 14 points from 66% to 52%.
Southwest battlegrounds like Arizona saw support drop 10 points from 70% to 60% by 2024, and New Mexico, another 10-point drop from 60.8% in 2020 to 50.6% by 2024.
Texas Hispanics shifted 11 points from 65% in 2024 to 55% in 2024, while Florida’s Hispanics, already right-leaning, moved further away from the Democratic Party from a 50% support threshold to a dithering 39% by 2024.
The biggest losses in traditional Democratic strongholds included Washington, D.C., seeing a 17.7-point drop from 2020 to 2024, and New York City, with a 16.7-point drop.
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