Monday night’s matchup in Seattle has the potential to be one of the biggest in U.S. men’s national team history.
The U.S. was already faced with a major opportunity, entering the World Cup round of 16 vs. Belgium. It then received a major boost after FIFA suspended Folarin Balogun’s one-match red card ban, making the striker and leading U.S. scorer in the tournament available for selection.
Balogun was sent off during the round of 32 against Bosnia and Herzegovina, and although FIFA had initially indicated the automatic suspension could not be appealed, the governing body has since suspended the ban, clearing him to face Belgium.
The Belgian federation released a statement saying it was “astonished” by the decision. Head coach Rudi Garcia said: “We’re not defending the national team or federation, we are defending football,” at his pre-match press conference.
Regardless of one’s feelings on the topic, the decision gives the game another dimension of intrigue — not that a game at this stage featuring the last cohost standing needed any more juice.
The two teams are battling for a place in the quarterfinals in what is a rematch from the same round in 2014, when U.S. goalkeeper Tim Howard set a new World Cup record for saves in a single-match (16), but the U.S. fell in extra time, 2-1.
None of the current USMNT squad remains from that day 12 years ago, though there are a few holdovers for Belgium. The teams are now looking to write their own history, and for one, a quarterfinal berth awaits. Here’s a closer look at the biggest talking points:
What you need to know about the matchup
Round of 16: United States (FIFA ranking 17) vs Belgium (FIFA ranking 9)
Venue: Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, Wash.
Date: Monday, July 6
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT
U.S. pathway: Winners of World Cup Group D: Two wins vs Paraguay and Australia, one loss to Turkey. Round of 32: 2-0 win vs Bosnia.
Belgium pathway: Winners of World Cup Group G: One win vs New Zealand, two ties against Egypt and Iran. Round of 32: 3-2 win vs Senegal, after extra time.
Odds
The U.S. has been the clear favorite in every match so far at the World Cup, but this match is tighter. The opening odds at the sportsbooks gave matching -110 odds for each team to advance, a true coin flip. DraftKings and BetMGM have since shifted the odds to give the Americans the slightest of edges.
Even with the news that Balogun can play despite getting a red card last match, the odds didn’t move much. DraftKings moved the odds in the U.S.’s favor a touch, but FanDuel and BetMGM mostly held steady. In fact, FanDuel had Belgium as a tiny favorite to advance (-112 vs. -108 for the U.S.) on Sunday afternoon.
With a match this tight, it wouldn’t be a major shock to see it go to extra time. The odds of a draw after 90 minutes between +225 and +240 at the major sportsbooks, which implies a roughly 30 percent chance.
Some fireworks are also expected. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are both solidly favored. Two of the Americans’ group games saw both teams score while that has happened in three of Belgium’s four matches so far.
In general, the odds are saying this match should be very dramatic.
