In the aftermath of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, shipping volumes soared in red states and dipped in blue states, suggesting that Trump supporters are gearing up to spend big this holiday season while supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris look to rein in seasonal spending in the wake of her loss.
Citing shipping data collected by ecommerce logistics provider Grip, CNBC reported that post-election shipping volumes shot up by an average of 50.4% in states that swung red.
In states that went blue, shipping volumes fell by an average of 11.2%, however. Every Democrat-won state saw shipping volumes drop, with the exceptions of Illinois and Minnesota, which saw shipping volumes increase after Trump clinched the race.
Trump’s win, which many believe was fueled by economic anxiety, has revived his supporters’ outlook on the future of the economy as they anticipate the president-elect will be able to bring down both inflation and prices.
Harris supporters, meanwhile, are worried that Trump might send inflation skyrocketing with his economic agenda, including placing tariffs on imported goods from Canada, China, and Mexico.
The shipping data suggests that there may be a link between presidential voting and holiday spending trends this year, as half the population heads into the shopping season feeling upbeat about the U.S. economy’s future and the other half heads into it feeling dejected.
Most holiday spending forecasts did not account for this factor, because they were released before the Nov. 5 general election.
According to the National Retail Federation, spending is expected to increase 2.5%-3.5% between Thanksgiving and Christmas, reportedly reflecting the slowest growth since 2018, when holiday retail sales climbed just 1.8% over the year prior.
With less than a month between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, the particularly short period of time is partly responsible for the tempered sales outlook.
Many reports that projected minor retail growth also included factors such as a protracted election counting process or a contested election — neither of which materialized and both of which could have deterred consumers from holiday shopping.
CNBC cautioned that the bump in holiday sales growth this year could be even smaller than predicted because the National Retail Federation’s forecast, among others, does not consider the impact of inflation.
Isaac Krakovsky, the consulting retail leader for EY Americas, told CNBC that holiday spending is expected to grow only 0.5% when higher prices are excluded from the sales forecast.
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